Rates & economy
Treasury, NY Fed, Federal Reserve, BLS and FRED, as publishedYields, the Fed and the economy
The Treasury yield curve
6 Nov 20266 Nov 2025
Fig. 1. Par yields, constant maturity. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
3.75–4.00%
HOLD · WED 28 OCT
Vote 10–2, chair Warsh. Dissents: Lisa D. Cook (for raise 1/4 percentage point); Beth M. Hammack (for raise 1/4 percentage point).
Next decision Wed 9 Dec, 14:00 ET.
Rates & oil90-day line
| 10-yr Treasury Fri 6 Nov | 4.86% +0.02 |
| 2-yr Treasury Fri 6 Nov | 4.51% +0.05 |
| 10-yr minus 2-yr Fri 6 Nov | 0.35 pt −0.03 |
| Effective fed funds Thu 5 Nov | 3.88% 0.00 |
| SOFR Thu 5 Nov | 3.92% −0.02 |
The economyBLS · FRED
| CPI, year on year | Sep 2026 | 3.7% |
| Core CPI, year on year | Sep 2026 | 2.6% |
| Unemployment rate | Oct 2026 | 4.1% |
| Payrolls, change in the month | Oct 2026 | 165k |
Recent FOMC decisionsfederalreserve.gov
| Meeting | Decision | Range | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | hold | 3.75–4.00% | 10–2 |
| 16 Sep 2026 | hike +25 bp | 3.75–4.00% | 12–0 |
| 29 Jul 2026 | hold | 3.50–3.75% | 9–3 |
| 17 Jun 2026 | hold | 3.50–3.75% | 12–0 |
| 29 Apr 2026 | hold | 3.50–3.75% | 8–4 |
| 18 Mar 2026 | hold | 3.50–3.75% | 11–1 |
Coming up
Fri13Nov
PPI (October 2026)08:30 ET
Wed18Nov
FOMC minutes (expected)time not set
Wed18Nov
NVDA resultsafter close · estimated date
Wed25Nov
Beige Booktime not set
Wed25Nov
GDP (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits, 3rd Quarter 202608:30 ET
Wed25Nov
Personal Income and Outlays, October 202608:30 ET
Prediction markets
Live market odds on these numbers. Source: Polymarket, by indicator.
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